Doven Foods Market Pulse: This Week’s Protein Playbook - Week 25 – June 2025

Alexandra Hernandez
Jun 17
2 min read

Hello and welcome to this week’s Doven Foods Market Pulse, your concise read on global protein markets.

Global Snapshot

Trade: U.S. beef and pork shippers continue reducing volumes to China because of high tariffs and plant delistings; new sales channels in Latin America are picking up slack.
Freight: Ocean-freight costs jumped sharply; the Baltic Dry Index rose about 40 percent in the past month, lifting feed- and ingredient-import costs.
Disease: USDA has temporarily halted Mexican feeder-cattle imports after a screwworm outbreak, tightening U.S. beef supply. Avian-influenza and African-swine-fever risks remain elevated worldwide.
Climate: NOAA projects an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Summer heat and potential storms are key watchpoints for livestock stress and Gulf/Caribbean port operations.

Category Insights

Functional Value-Added Proteins

Breaded / fully cooked chicken: QSR (Quick-Service Restaurant) orders for tenders and strips remain brisk; labor-intensive production keeps spot supply tight and prices firm.
Ground-meat items / patties: Higher grind costs are flowing into portion-controlled patties; operators are turning to seasoning blends and smaller weights to protect margins.
Prepared foods & snacks: Demand for high-protein, convenient items persists, but elevated input costs are slowing new product rollouts.

Beef

Cattle numbers are at multi-decade lows, and suspension of Mexican feeders further crimps supply. Choice cutout values sit in the mid-$300s per hundredweight; middle meats stay firm while 90CL trim remains well bid from export channels.

Pork

U.S. hog supplies are ample, keeping pork the relative value buy. Loins, butts, and ribs are firm on grilling demand; bellies have softened. Record 2025 output projections cap upside despite strong domestic usage.

Poultry

Jumbo boneless breast prices hold at a near-record seasonal level, wings remain high, and leg-quarter quotes eased on lighter West-Africa interest. Slow growth in broiler output and tight turkey inventories support overall firmness.

Seafood

Shrimp: Supplies are improving; offers are generally softening.
Salmon: Larger Chilean harvests should nudge spot values toward the low-$3-per-pound range in H2.
Octopus & squid: Recent Argentine Illex and Peru catches help, but global cephalopod supply is still tight and pricing firm.
Tuna: Abundant skipjack and yellowfin landings keep markets subdued.

Latin America & Caribbean Watch

Slower regional growth and currency volatility favor short-term, just-in-time imports, with competitive Miami freight maintaining U.S. product appeal.

What to Watch This Week

USDA weekly slaughter and cutout reports for signs of post-holiday recovery.
Updates on the screwworm response and any restart of Mexican feeder-cattle imports.
Pending U.S. rulings on shrimp and poultry duties.
New avian-influenza or ASF reports that could shift supply or export policy.
Early tropical-storm formation that might disrupt Gulf and Caribbean ports.

Key Takeaways

Beef supplies remain historically tight; cutout values stay elevated.
Pork output is plentiful, making it the best price-stability option despite belly swings.
Chicken breasts and wings are costly; turkey stays tight.
Shrimp offers buying opportunities, while octopus and squid present cost risk.

This weekly report is prepared by the Doven Foods Research Team.