Doven Foods Market Pulse: Week 41, October 2025

Steadier logistics and shifting seafood supply headline Week 41. Poultry inputs are ample for value-added programs, beef cools seasonally from late-summer highs, and pork processing items remain the pivot.

Global Snapshot

Ocean container spot rates continued to decline into early October. While carriers are reducing sailings, diversions to the Red Sea are still adding transit days. It's advisable to maintain modest schedule buffers, even though space is becoming more affordable.

Trade policy is reshaping seafood costs: higher U.S. tariffs on key origins (notably India, with spillover effects on other suppliers) are lifting landed shrimp costs and forcing menu/assortment adjustments across foodservice and retail.

Category Insights

A) Functional Value-Added Proteins

• Breaded/unbreaded chicken (RTC & fully cooked): White-meat availability is comfortable, supporting nuggets/tenders/strips and boneless-wing formats tied to fall sports promotions. Expect stable fills on fully cooked.

  
  

• Ground programs & further-processed items: Ground beef remains a traffic driver as middle meats ease seasonally. For pork patties/emulsions, input risk is concentrated in hams, bellies and 42s; earlier tightness keeps processors conservative on formulas.

B) Beef

• Middle meats (ribeye, striploin, short loin): Boxed-beef momentum cooled versus September; futures tone is cautious after summer strength. Plan for steady-to-slightly-softer asks while operators manage portion sizes.

  
  

• Rounds & chucks: Value features sustain movement; keep flexible specs on insides, goosenecks and chucks to capture weekly buys.

  
  

• Trimmings & grinds: Lean trim is supported by grind demand, while 50s remain sensitive to kill rates. Blend strategies continue to help manage daily volatility.

C) Pork

• Supply read-through: Summer slaughter undershot expectations; processing items continue to underpin the cutout. Tone: steady-firm near-term, with selective softness if harvest improves later in the week.

  
  

• Loins: Mixed. Boneless loins competitive; tenderloins relatively firmer.

  
  

• Bone In Hams: Supported by export pull and leaner freezer positions; maintain staggered coverage.

  
  

• Ribs: Manageable inventories keep tone steady; watch post-summer demand for any fade.

  
  

• Trimmings: 42s/fats remain the key swing for further-processed costs; watch daily prints alongside harvest pace.

• Bellies: Off summer peaks but still influential in the cutout. Opportunistic coverage on dips.

D) Poultry

• Leg quarters: Export lanes to Central America remain steady; bulk value attractive.

  
  

• Boneless skinless breasts: Ample supply and softer spot assessments into September support coated/value-added programs into October.

  
  

• Wings: Promotional calendars for football keep both bone-in and boneless formats supported; plan weekend coverage for fully cooked. (Industry promos and demand signals remain constructive.)

  
  

• Mechanically Separated Chicken (MSC): Mostly steady, anchored by emulsions/sausage. (Correlated to recuts and kill schedules.)

  
  

• Turkey: Pre-holiday positioning is firmer than last year; breast-meat tone constructive into late October.

E) Seafood

• Indian shrimp: Tariff-driven cost pressure persists; buyers report menu resets and tighter spec coverage as pre-tariff stockpiles work down. Build extra time for documentation/routing.

  
  

• Tuna: Bangkok raw material broadly steady; forward procurement remains cautious.

  
  

• FAO 34 octopus: Morocco suspended octopus fishing through Dec 15, tightening fall supply; tone remains firm for Q4 shipments.

  
  

• Squid (pota, Peru): Authorities paused the first stage of the extended 2025 season after quota was reached quickly; near-term supply tighter while phase timing resets.

  
  

• Salmon: U.S. wholesale commentary indicates Chilean fillet prices eased as supply outpaced demand; Norway remains relatively firmer. Expect neutral-to-soft tone near-term.

Latin America & Caribbean Watch

• Mexico: Continues to anchor U.S. pork flows (hams, variety meats), supporting processing items into fall.

  
  

• Central America: Chicken programs steady; consistent interest for bulk leg quarters. (No new material developments for Dominican Republic this week.)

What to Watch This Week

• Freight: Use cheaper Transpacific spot rates to secure space, but keep schedule buffers due to capacity trims and Red Sea reroutes.

  
  

• Pork processing items: Track hams, bellies and 42s as harvest fluctuates; be ready for tactical buys on mid-week softness.

  
  

• Wings & fully cooked chicken: Maintain weekend coverage for sports promotions; demand signals remain healthy.

  
  

• Octopus & squid: Morocco’s closure and Peru’s phased season constrain Q4 supply.

  
  

• Beef cutout: After the late-summer pullback, monitor boxed-beef trajectory for either sideways or softer prints before adding middle-meat length.

Key Takeaways

• Lower spot freight is a tailwind, but reliability still requires buffers.

  
  

• Chicken inputs favor value-added SKUs; wings supported by fall promotions.

  
  

• Pork’s balance hinges on processing items. Manage ham, belly and trim coverage dynamically.

  
  

• Beef moderates seasonally; trims remain supported by grind demand.

  
  

• Seafood: octopus and squid tight for fall; shrimp sourcing recalibrates under tariff pressure.

This weekly report is prepared by the Doven Foods Research Team.