Doven Foods Market Pulse - Week of Monday, June 23 2025

Welcome to this week’s Doven Foods Market Pulse, your concise read on global protein markets.

Global Snapshot

Persistent livestock‐health scares and weather threats keep protein supply tight. USDA’s suspension of Mexican feeder‐cattle entries for New World screwworm containment is still in force, trimming U.S. beef inflow. Highly pathogenic avian-influenza detections continue to surface and cap poultry expansion. Ocean freight has turned costlier: the Baltic Dry Index hovers just under 2 000 points after a mid-June rally, up roughly forty percent from late May. NOAA projects an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a direct risk for Gulf and Caribbean logistics.

Category Insights

Functional Value-Added Proteins

• Breaded and fully cooked chicken: quick-service restaurants have summer promotions queued up; plant-capacity limits keep spot supply firm.

• Ground-meat items / patties: sustained grind costs push processors toward lean–fat blends and smaller portion weights to protect menu margins.

• Further-processed SKUs: retailers widen “high-protein convenience” lines even as elevated ingredient costs slow launch pace.

Beef

Middle meats remain high while chucks and rounds stay steady-firm. Export-driven 90CL trim demand holds. Live-cattle futures hover near record highs as the Mexican import halt tightens supply.

Pork

Record 2025 hog output anchors overall price stability. Loins, butts and ribs are firm on grilling features; bellies have turned soft. Abundant domestic supply caps rallies despite decent export flow.

Poultry

Jumbo boneless breasts trade at the second-highest seasonal level in Urner Barry history and wings stay high. Leg-quarter values eased with lighter West-Africa buying. Tight turkey inventories and ongoing HPAI vigilance keep tom prices firm.

Seafood

• Indian Vannamei shrimp: farm-gate quotes show a soft tone as June harvests expand.

• Salmon: heavier Chilean harvests are expected to pull wholesale fillet values toward the low-three-dollar-per-pound area in H2.

• Squid: Argentine Illex landings are up more than 25 percent year over year, tempering, but not yet reversing, global tightness.

• Tuna: abundant skipjack and yellowfin catches keep offers subdued.

Latin America & Caribbean Watch

Regional buyers stay cautious, placing smaller, just-in-time orders as freight and currency costs climb.

What to Watch This Week

• USDA beef and pork slaughter/cutout releases for post-holiday trend clues.

• Any change in the Mexican cattle-import suspension or screwworm status.

• U.S. rulings on pending shrimp or poultry duty cases that could reset landed costs.

• New HPAI or ASF reports that might disrupt regional supply chains.

• Early tropical-storm activity near Gulf and Caribbean shipping lanes.

Key Takeaways

• Beef remains the tightest major protein as cattle numbers shrink and Mexican feeder inflow is paused.

• Pork offers the best price stability, though belly weakness contrasts with strong shoulder and rib demand.

• Chicken breasts and wings stay costly; turkey supply is thin.

• Shrimp now shows buyer leverage, while squid remains a cost risk despite better Argentine catches.

This weekly report is prepared by the Doven Foods Research Team.